产能出清和供给端压缩持续 光伏板块投资机遇初显

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic sector is showing signs of investment opportunities as the industry enters a phase of capacity clearance, with prices falling below relevant costs and short-term policy catalysts aligning with long-term capacity reductions [1][2]. Industry Status - The photovoltaic concept index rose by 0.56% on June 20, with several stocks hitting the daily limit, including Saiwu Technology, Jingyuntong, and Xiexin Integration [2]. - Analysts indicate that the photovoltaic industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with ongoing low prices and insufficient operating rates leading to continuous performance declines [2][3]. - The industry is characterized by both growth and cyclical attributes, with growth driven by increasing market penetration and capacity expansion, while cyclical aspects arise from mismatched supply and demand [3]. Capacity Clearance - Since 2024, the photovoltaic industry has entered a significant capacity clearance phase due to intensified market competition and supply-demand mismatches [3][4]. - Analysts emphasize that the current capacity clearance is influenced by policy changes and new technology iterations, with many companies lacking the necessary capital and technical reserves for capacity upgrades [3]. Investment Opportunities - The ongoing capacity clearance is expected to accelerate industry reshuffling, favoring high-quality companies that can leverage technological barriers and scale advantages [5]. - Investment focus should be on two main lines: "capacity clearance" and "new technology iteration," particularly in segments like polysilicon and photovoltaic glass where leading companies are expected to perform well [5]. - The BC industry chain is highlighted for its strong demand in Europe and China's distributed market, with potential investment opportunities in related equipment and materials [5].