汇丰年中展望：上半年=不确定性=下半年避险？

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Securities has a positive outlook for the second half of the year, favoring a risk-on stance due to signs of economic rebound in the US, despite potential weakness later in the year [1][2] Economic Activity and Market Sentiment - The first half of the year was marked by uncertainty across various sectors, but historically, risk assets tend to rebound during periods of heightened economic policy uncertainty [2] - Current market sentiment remains low, with investors reducing positions in equities and high-yield credit, indicating potential for systematic investors to re-leverage [4] Catalysts for Market Movement - Key catalysts for market movement include low sentiment and positioning, unexpected positive economic activities, optimism surrounding artificial intelligence, and a weaker dollar potentially boosting US earnings [3] - Confidence in the US tax agenda is waning, but any agreements reached before summer could serve as a bullish catalyst for risk assets [3] Asset Allocation Strategy - HSBC recommends an overweight position in equities, high-yield bonds, and emerging market debt, while underweighting developed market government bonds [6] - Specific allocations include a slight overweight in global equities (50.0% strategic weight) and emerging market equities (6.2% tactical weight), while underweighting developed market bonds, particularly US and Japanese government bonds [7] Risk Factors - The US labor market and treasury yields are approaching critical levels, with potential seasonal increases in unemployment claims that could be misinterpreted as signs of economic weakness [5] - The danger zone for widespread sell-offs is identified at a 10-year US Treasury yield of 4.7% [5]