钙钛矿量产在即

Core Viewpoint - The increasing interest in perovskite solar cells is driven by the realization that investments in crystalline silicon are often unprofitable, making perovskite the "only choice" for companies in the photovoltaic market [3][4]. Industry Development - Over the past three years, major photovoltaic companies and energy firms have entered the perovskite sector, with expectations for mass production to begin in 2025. Companies like GCL-Poly and others are establishing GW-level production lines [4][6]. - GCL-Poly has set up a GW-scale production base for perovskite tandem modules, aiming for a 500MW production line by the end of the year [4]. - Other companies, including Renshou Energy and Xina Solar, are also planning to launch 500MW production lines within the year [4]. Technological Advancements - The theoretical efficiency limit for perovskite tandem cells is 43%, which is seen as a mainstream technology to surpass the efficiency limits of single crystalline silicon cells [5]. - Companies like LONGi Green Energy and Tongwei Co. are investing in perovskite-silicon tandem cell research, with some already establishing MW-level production lines [5][6]. Market Opportunities - Many domestic perovskite companies are targeting applications in areas like streetlights and carports, aiming to penetrate markets that crystalline silicon cannot easily cover [8]. - GCL-Poly is focusing on directly replacing crystalline silicon components in photovoltaic power stations, with a recent project in Qinghai utilizing perovskite components [9][10]. Cost and Efficiency Considerations - The production cost of perovskite is theoretically lower than that of crystalline silicon, but current production costs remain high due to limited capacity [11]. - The cost of components in photovoltaic systems is decreasing in significance, with balance of system (BOS) costs becoming more dominant [10]. Competitive Landscape - The photovoltaic industry has seen a shift from PERC to TOPCon and other technologies, leading to a situation where many companies are experiencing losses due to oversupply [13]. - The complexity of perovskite production may prevent it from entering a similar "involution" phase as seen with crystalline silicon technologies, as each new formulation represents a new product [14][15].