Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-06-21 07:34Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Senate passed the "Stablecoin Innovation Act," marking a significant shift for stablecoins from a "gray area" to "compliance operation," which has triggered a surge in the capital market, particularly for Circle's stock, which rose over 675% in just over ten days [2][4]. Group 1: Market Impact and Predictions - Circle's stock price skyrocketed from $31 to $240 following the legislative approval, indicating strong market enthusiasm for stablecoins [2]. - Citi's report predicts that the stablecoin market could reach $3.7 trillion by 2030 under optimistic scenarios, driven by regulatory support and widespread institutional adoption [2][12]. Group 2: Retail Giants' Interest - Retail giants like Amazon and Walmart are exploring the issuance of their own stablecoins to address high payment processing fees, which can amount to billions annually [4][5]. - Amazon's e-commerce revenue is projected to reach $447.5 billion in 2024, while Walmart's is expected to be $120.9 billion, highlighting the significant financial incentive for these companies to adopt stablecoins [5]. Group 3: Cost Savings and Efficiency - Current payment systems impose transaction fees of 1.5% to 3%, leading to potential annual costs of $6.7 billion to $13.4 billion for Amazon and $1.8 billion to $3.6 billion for Walmart [6]. - Transitioning to stablecoin payments could reduce transaction costs to around 0.1%, allowing these retailers to save billions annually [6]. Group 4: Data Control and Customer Insights - By issuing their own stablecoins, companies like Amazon can gain better control over user data, enhancing their ability to analyze consumer behavior and optimize marketing strategies [7]. - Walmart's patent application in 2019 indicated plans to use blockchain to record consumer habits, potentially offering discounts to enhance customer loyalty [7]. Group 5: Traditional Financial Institutions' Response - Traditional banks face potential deposit outflows of up to $6.6 trillion due to the rise of stablecoins, which could weaken their ability to attract deposits and extend credit [8][9]. - Major banks, including Bank of America and JPMorgan, are exploring joint stablecoin issuance to maintain relevance in the evolving financial landscape [9]. Group 6: Payment Giants' Adaptation - Visa has begun investing in stablecoin startups and forming partnerships to facilitate stablecoin use in cross-border payments, indicating a proactive approach to the emerging competition [10][11]. - The banking sector is also looking to issue their own stablecoins to retain customer relationships and transaction flows, rather than ceding control to third-party issuers [12]. Group 7: Challenges Facing Stablecoins - Analysts express skepticism about the immediate impact of stablecoins on traditional payment systems, citing consumer acceptance as a critical barrier [14]. - Current stablecoins are predominantly dollar-denominated, limiting their effectiveness in local currency transactions and posing liquidity challenges [14]. - The lack of effective fraud prevention mechanisms in stablecoin transactions raises concerns about consumer confidence, as completed transactions are irreversible [14][15].