【财经分析】前五个月民生等重点领域支出得到保障 年内财政发力可能分“两步走”

Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported a decline in national general public budget revenue by 0.3% year-on-year for the first five months of 2025, totaling 96,623 billion yuan, while expenditures increased by 4.2% to 112,953 billion yuan [1][2][4] Revenue Analysis - National tax revenue reached 79,156 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue grew by 6.2% to 17,467 billion yuan [2] - Central government revenue decreased by 3% to 41,486 billion yuan, while local government revenue increased by 1.9% to 55,137 billion yuan [2] - The completion rate of general public budget revenue for the first five months was 43.9%, higher than the same period in 2024 but below the average of the past five years [2][3] Expenditure Analysis - Total general public budget expenditure for the first five months was 112,953 billion yuan, with central government expenditure growing by 9.4% and local government expenditure increasing by 3.4% [4] - Expenditure on social security, education, and health care saw significant growth, with social security and employment spending up by 9.2% and education spending up by 6.7% [4] - Infrastructure-related spending decreased by 3.2%, indicating a shift in focus towards social welfare over infrastructure [4] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that fiscal policy may adopt a "two-step" approach, focusing on the implementation of existing policies while remaining prepared to introduce new measures if economic conditions change [3][5] - The government has room for policy adjustments and reserves to address uncertainties in both domestic and international contexts [3][5]