未名宏观|2025年5月进、出口点评——外部环境大变局下，贸易国别结构变化显著

Core Viewpoint - The external environment for trade is complex and volatile, leading to fluctuations in foreign trade growth rates, with significant changes in trade country structures observed in May 2025 [1] Export Summary - In May 2025, China's total exports reached $316.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, but a decline of 3.3 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by high base effects [2][3] - The U.S. government's high tariff policies have significantly impacted global markets, resulting in a substantial decrease in exports to the U.S., which fell by 30.7% year-on-year in May, a decline that widened by 11.5 percentage points compared to April [1][2] - Exports to the EU saw a notable increase due to the resumption of "electric vehicle" negotiations and the lifting of mutual restrictions, with exports to Germany and France growing by 21.51% and 24.09% respectively [5][6] - Traditional export categories like clothing and toys continued to decline, while high-tech products such as integrated circuits and automobiles experienced significant growth, with integrated circuit exports rising by 33.4% year-on-year [5][6] Import Summary - In May 2025, China's total imports amounted to $212.88 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%, with the decline accelerating by 3.2 percentage points from the previous month [6][7] - The domestic economic restructuring has led to reduced demand for traditional bulk commodities, contributing to the continued negative growth in import volumes [6][7] - Imports from the U.S. saw a further decline, while imports from the EU showed a narrowing decrease, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [6][7] - Specific commodity imports, such as iron ore and natural gas, experienced significant year-on-year declines, with iron ore imports down by 5.2% and natural gas by 9.5% [7] Future Outlook - The external environment for trade in 2025 is expected to remain complex, with risks and opportunities coexisting, leading to potential fluctuations in export growth [8] - Domestic economic stabilization policies are anticipated to support a gradual recovery in import growth, although challenges remain due to ongoing structural adjustments in the economy and high global trade barriers [8]