又到关键节点！A股下周怎么办？短期A股风险偏好回落

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations due to overseas conflict news and its own rhythm, resulting in a two-week decline and a monthly upper shadow line [2] - Over 4,100 stocks fell this week, marking the worst performance since mid-April, only better than the week of the significant drop on April 7 [4] - The average stock price in the A-share market indicates a critical decision point for the upcoming week, with major indices falling below the 120-day moving average for the first time since May [5] Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The total trading volume on Friday was 1.0917 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 190 billion yuan from Thursday, marking the lowest since May 28 [7] - In 111 trading days this year, only three days saw trading volumes below 1 trillion yuan, indicating a potential "low volume sees low price" scenario [7] - The market sentiment is cautious, with a decline in risk appetite attributed to weakening domestic economic support and increasing overseas disturbances [8] Sector Performance - Defensive assets showed absolute returns, while high-risk assets like new consumption and innovative pharmaceuticals faced adjustments [9] - 24 sectors rose against the trend this week, with notable gains in defense, oil service engineering, and banking sectors driven by risk aversion [11] - Specific sectors such as ground armaments and communication equipment saw significant weekly trading volume increases, indicating strong investor interest [12] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain in a narrow range until at least the July Politburo meeting, with potential breakthroughs requiring positive signals from either earnings or policy fronts [13] - The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions are anticipated to enter a prolonged negotiation phase, with market focus likely shifting back to fundamentals post-tariff adjustments [13] - Upcoming events include the release of important production material price changes and the unlocking of 5.221 billion shares from 47 companies, which could impact market dynamics [21][22]