【环球财经】巴西政府预测持续福利金受益人数至2060年将翻倍

Group 1 - The Brazilian government predicts a significant expansion of the Continuous Benefit Payment (BPC) program, with the number of beneficiaries potentially doubling over the next 34 years due to aging population and increasing vulnerable groups [1][2] - The number of beneficiaries is expected to rise from 6.7 million in 2026 to 14.1 million by 2060, representing an increase of 111%, while annual spending is projected to surge from 133.4 billion reais to 1.5 trillion reais, a cumulative growth of over 10 times [1] - Most beneficiaries of the BPC are currently individuals with disabilities, with the number expected to reach 3.9 million by 2026, compared to 2.7 million elderly beneficiaries [1] Group 2 - The increase in BPC beneficiaries is partly influenced by judicial pathways, allowing some individuals who could not pass regular audits to obtain benefits through litigation [2] - The Brazilian government is concerned about the financial pressure resulting from the expansion of the BPC, with measures being implemented to control spending, including data verification and biennial eligibility reassessments, expected to save 15.4 billion reais from 2025 to 2029 [2] - The Ministry of Planning, Budget, and Management emphasizes the BPC's role in protecting vulnerable groups and reducing poverty, reflecting societal longevity trends and the informal labor market's impact [2] Group 3 - Experts highlight that the BPC faces long-term issues related to its effectiveness compared to more precise programs like Bolsa Família, with concerns about the dilution of its poverty alleviation effects when multiple family members receive benefits [3] - The trend of judicialization may lead to beneficiaries not being in the most impoverished conditions, affecting the program's fairness [3] - Despite these challenges, the Ministry of Social Development asserts that the BPC is one of Brazil's most progressive and effective social security tools, linking it to minimum wage and enhancing the protection of vulnerable groups [3]