智通财经网·2025-06-22 08:42Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that U.S. inflation may enter an upward trend in the second half of the year, with a potential decline resuming in 2026. The inflation effects of tariffs may be delayed but are expected to materialize eventually [1][4]. Group 1: Current Inflation Trends - U.S. inflation has been weaker than expected in the first half of the year, influenced by falling oil prices, cooling service inflation, and insufficient transmission of tariffs [1][2]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed only a 0.1% month-on-month increase in May, despite rising expectations for inflation [1][2]. Group 2: Factors Affecting Tariff Impact - The slow implementation of tariffs is a key reason for the lack of significant inflation increase in the U.S. The actual tariff rates remain below theoretical levels due to delays in the tariff collection process [3]. - U.S. companies have been able to delay price increases for up to three months due to excess imports and stable inventory levels, which has further muted the impact of tariffs on inflation [3]. - Approximately 75% of U.S. companies are willing to pass on tariff costs to consumers, with the current impact on retail profit margins estimated at 2.5 percentage points [3]. Group 3: Future Inflation Outlook - The report suggests that U.S. inflation may rise in the second half of the year, driven by factors such as potential dollar depreciation, tariff escalations, and rising oil prices [4]. - Conversely, if the U.S. economy weakens more than expected in the second half, inflation may perform weaker than anticipated, leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [4].