美国突然“下场”，如何扰动原油、美股、美元和黄金？

Group 1: U.S. Military Action and Its Implications - The U.S. military has completed attacks on Iran's key nuclear facilities, including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, using six bunker buster bombs and 30 Tomahawk missiles [1][4][6] - President Trump indicated that the attacks aimed to push Iran back to the negotiation table, with no further military actions planned in Iran [8][13] - Experts predict that Iran may retaliate by increasing missile strikes on Israel and limited attacks on U.S. military bases in the Middle East [9][13] Group 2: Market Reactions - International oil prices are expected to rise due to the conflict, with Brent crude oil futures having increased by 18% since June 10, reaching a near five-month high of $79 per barrel [16][17] - The probability of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz has surged to 41%, up from 10% prior to the attacks [10] - The U.S. stock market initially experienced a drop but remained stable afterward, with historical data suggesting that declines in such conflicts are often short-lived [19][20] Group 3: Economic Impact - Rising oil prices could lead to increased inflation, potentially pushing U.S. inflation rates close to 6% by year-end [22][23] - The Federal Reserve may be compelled to maintain high interest rates in response to rising oil prices, which could exacerbate the U.S. fiscal deficit and weaken the dollar's competitiveness [22][23] - The demand for safe-haven assets like gold is anticipated to increase, although the price surge may be limited unless the conflict escalates significantly [17][22]