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中信建投:医药行业下半年继续看好新增量及行业整合机会
智通财经网·2025-06-22 11:05

Core Insights - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry possesses advantages in population and domestic demand, manufacturing and supply chain, and rapidly improving innovation capabilities, while the number of Chinese assets going abroad continues to rise [1][2] - In the face of external challenges, the industry needs to focus on domestic stability and external expansion, emphasizing supply chain autonomy, innovation, and integration domestically, while accelerating internationalization to seize global opportunities [1][2] Domestic Focus - Policy outlook indicates that reforms are entering a deep-water zone, with high-quality growth becoming the norm; key areas of focus include optimization of drug and consumable procurement policies, diversified payment methods, and medical service price reforms by the second half of 2025 [3] - The pharmaceutical supply chain is undergoing optimization and active innovation transformation, with a focus on supply chain security [3] - There are positive prospects for import substitution and merger integration opportunities in medical devices, with attention to new technology directions such as AI and brain-machine interfaces [3] - The industry is observing a recovery rhythm and long-term transformation in traditional Chinese medicine, pharmacies, distribution, medical services, and vaccines [3] External Expansion - Chinese innovations in pharmaceuticals are gaining recognition on the international stage, with ongoing strengthening of industry trends [4] - The pharmaceutical upstream and life sciences sectors are actively exploring overseas markets to seek a second growth curve [4] - Short-term tariff disruptions in raw materials are limited, with a focus on industry transformation opportunities [4] - The trend of internationalization in medical devices is firmly supported, with attention to opportunities for independent sales and business development of certain innovative devices [4] - The introduction of immunoglobulin provides opportunities for blood products to go abroad, with ongoing progress in overseas registration [4] - The export of vaccines is becoming more diversified, with an expected acceleration in progress [4] Investment Outlook for Second Half of 2025 - The focus on innovation will center around innovative drugs and pharmaceutical companies (e.g., bispecific antibodies, T-cell engagers, nuclear medicine) and medical devices (e.g., AI, brain-machine interfaces) [5] - The export focus will highlight representative segments such as innovative drugs and medical device companies [5] - Marginal changes will be driven by policy improvements (including pharmaceutical distribution and medical equipment updates) and supply-demand relationship improvements in sectors like CXO, life sciences, and upstream biopharmaceuticals [5] - The integration focus will recommend attention to medical devices and traditional Chinese medicine sub-sectors, certain pharmaceutical companies, and state-owned enterprises [5]