下半年A股怎么走？最新研判来了

Core Viewpoint - Fund managers are optimistic about the A-share market in the second half of 2025, expecting a gradual upward trend supported by low historical valuation levels and a "double easing" monetary and fiscal policy [1][4][5]. Market Outlook - The overall market is anticipated to remain in a range-bound fluctuation, with key factors such as trade policies and counter-cyclical adjustments influencing the market [4][5]. - The A-share market is expected to experience a gradual upward shift, with the third and fourth quarters being critical periods to watch [4][5][6]. - The current valuation levels of the A500 index are at historical averages, indicating significant potential for upward movement [4][5]. Investment Strategies - A "barbell strategy" is favored, focusing on stable high ROE and high dividend assets on one end, and growth assets with valuation elasticity, particularly in the new productivity sectors represented by the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, on the other end [7][12]. - Specific sectors of interest include AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to perform well due to favorable policies and market conditions [11][12][19]. Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly AI and robotics, is expected to see significant growth, with structural bull markets anticipated in these areas [11][12]. - New consumption trends and the aging population are driving demand in service consumption and healthcare sectors, presenting new investment opportunities [11][12][19]. - The pharmaceutical sector, especially innovative drugs, is projected to benefit from increasing market demand and favorable policy support [11][12][19]. Investment Opportunities - There are structural investment opportunities in sectors that have not been fully priced in, such as certain small-cap pharmaceutical companies and high-dividend yielding assets [16][19]. - The potential for recovery in the Hong Kong market is noted, with opportunities in technology, new consumption, and financial sectors due to low valuations and high dividend yields [19][20]. Key Influencing Factors - The core factors influencing the stock market include macroeconomic conditions, policy environment, and industry development trends [25][26]. - External risks such as trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and global economic conditions are critical to monitor as they may impact market sentiment and performance [25][26].