连线中东问题专家：关闭霍尔木兹海峡可被视为伊朗最后的反击

Group 1 - The U.S. has completed attacks on three Iranian nuclear facilities, escalating tensions in the Middle East [1] - Iran retaliated with missile strikes against Israel, using 40 missiles, including the "Castle Destroyer" multi-warhead ballistic missile [1] - The Houthis in Yemen announced they would resume attacks on U.S. vessels in the Red Sea due to U.S. actions [1] Group 2 - The U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is driven by multiple considerations, including satisfying Israel's goals, forcing Iran to submit, and demonstrating U.S. global dominance [2] - If Iran does not submit, the conflict may escalate into a larger military confrontation, with Iran targeting U.S. personnel and facilities in the region [2] - Should Iran's regime capitulate, it could lead to regime change, a ceasefire, and a restructuring of Middle Eastern security dynamics [2] Group 3 - The U.S. shifted to military action against Iran due to ineffective pressure tactics and the need to address domestic political issues [3] - This military action risks damaging U.S. international credibility and could lead to increased threats to U.S. military bases and interests abroad [3] - The attack may cause a spike in international energy prices, impacting U.S. economic growth and exacerbating domestic political divisions [3] Group 4 - Iran's response to the U.S. attack is expected to result in long-term military confrontations and a potential increase in its nuclear capabilities [4] - The instability in global energy supply chains is anticipated, particularly concerning the security of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route [5][6] - Closing the Strait of Hormuz could lead to a global energy crisis, significantly affecting oil prices and international economic stability [6]