霍尔木兹海峡大消息！原油价格或被“点燃” 比特币已跌破10万美元

Group 1: Oil Market Impact - Iran's parliament has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, which is a critical oil shipping route, accounting for approximately one-third of global maritime crude oil trade [1] - Following the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, international oil prices have increased by about 10% since the Israeli attack on Iran, with June's increase exceeding 20% [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that further political instability in Iran could lead to sustained high oil prices [1] Group 2: Commodity and Financial Market Reactions - The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East directly impacts oil supply, with recovery often only occurring after significant de-escalation [2] - Gold and the US dollar are gaining attention as safe-haven assets, with gold prices experiencing a decline of approximately 1.91% last week, while the US dollar index rose by 0.64% [2] - The geopolitical tensions are expected to increase uncertainty globally, potentially leading to a higher allocation towards gold as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3: Stock Market Dynamics - Middle Eastern stock markets, including Saudi Arabia and Israel, have shown varied responses, with the TASI index down by 0.29% and the TA35 index up by 4.71% [3][4] - US stock markets typically experience emotional disturbances only in the initial weeks of conflict, with a tendency to recover quickly if the US is not directly involved [4] - The overall impact of Middle Eastern conflicts on Chinese assets is limited, primarily causing emotional disturbances on the first day of conflict, which tend to recover quickly [4]