长城基金梁福睿：创新药选股并非“拆盲盒”

Core Viewpoint - The innovative drug market remains active, with domestic innovative drugs gaining traction in overseas licensing and sales, which is crucial for public fund managers to capitalize on the market trend [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of June 22, 2025, the annual return of the Great Wall Pharmaceutical Industry Select Fund managed by Liang Furui reached 71.21%, ranking among the top A-share funds for the year [2] - The fund's allocation to Hong Kong stocks was 35.20% as of the end of March, significantly contributing to its performance [2] Group 2: Investment Characteristics - The current valuation uplift in the Hong Kong market is a result of policy benefits, global liquidity easing, and market sentiment [2] - Many innovative drug companies are still in a loss-making phase, yet their stock prices continue to rise, reflecting the industry's characteristics of high risk, high barriers, high returns, and long cycles [2][3] Group 3: R&D Dynamics - The lengthy R&D cycle and high costs necessitate that companies undergo a "burning money" phase before product launch, which is viewed as a pre-investment in future market value [3] - Leading companies are diversifying their R&D pipelines by advancing multiple clinical projects simultaneously, which mitigates the risk of failure and creates a positive feedback loop from R&D to commercialization [3] Group 4: Valuation Insights - The innovative drug sector encompasses various fields, with ADC and dual/multi-antibody therapies poised for significant growth in oncology, potentially replacing current standards like PD1 and chemotherapy [4] - The valuation of innovative drugs exhibits a tiered explosive characteristic, with early-stage pipelines relying on breakthrough expectations and later-stage pipelines depending on commercialization certainty [5] Group 5: Performance Outlook - The innovative drug sector is entering a critical phase of results, which distinguishes it from AI medical investments, as fund managers focus more on performance cycles rather than chasing market trends [7] - The investment logic in innovative drugs is based on a deep understanding of scientific principles and probability, providing a clearer anchor for performance expectations [7]