中信证券：拉长周期来看，东紧张局势对全球油价的影响在边际弱化

Core Viewpoint - Oil is the commodity most directly affected by the situation in the Middle East, with supply disruptions occurring when conflicts escalate and only recovering significantly after tensions decrease or cease entirely [1] Supply Analysis - The report indicates that oil supply from Middle Eastern countries is often disrupted during heightened conflict, and recovery typically occurs only after a significant reduction in conflict intensity or complete cessation of hostilities [1] Price Dynamics - Initial price increases in oil often occur at the onset of conflict, but the subsequent price levels are primarily determined by supply and demand fundamentals [1] - Over the long term, the influence of Middle Eastern tensions on global oil prices is expected to weaken marginally due to a decrease in the supply share from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries and improvements in oil reserves and emergency mechanisms in consuming nations [1]