【环时深度】首都圈单极集中加剧，日韩困扰

Core Points - The Japanese government aims to create 10,000 jobs outside Tokyo by the end of the 2027 fiscal year through corporate headquarters relocation as part of the "Regional Revitalization 2.0" policy to address the issue of over-concentration in the Tokyo metropolitan area [1] - The Tokyo metropolitan area, which includes Tokyo and neighboring prefectures, accounts for approximately 3.6% of Japan's land area but houses about one-third of the country's population, indicating a significant concentration of resources [3][4] - Similar over-concentration issues are observed in South Korea, where the Seoul metropolitan area contains 50.7% of the national population and 58% of employment, leading to a "Seoul Republic" phenomenon [5][6] Summary by Category Japan's Situation - The Tokyo metropolitan area saw a net inflow of approximately 79,200 people last year, with a continuous increase over three years, despite government efforts to balance population movement [3][4] - Young people aged 20-24 represent the largest demographic moving to Tokyo, primarily for employment and education opportunities [4] - The concentration of resources in Tokyo has led to significant challenges, including declining birth rates, with the total fertility rate in Tokyo dropping to 0.99 in 2023 [7][8] South Korea's Situation - The Seoul metropolitan area has a population of 26.01 million, with 78.5% of net inflows from 2015 to 2021 being young people aged 15-34 [5][6] - In 2022, 52.5% of South Korea's GDP and 58.5% of employment were concentrated in the capital region, significantly higher than in the United States [6] - The average housing prices in the capital region negatively impact birth rates, with a 10% increase in rent correlating to a 0.01 decrease in the total fertility rate [8][9] Policy Responses - Japan's government has implemented various measures, including the "Regional Revitalization" policies, to encourage population growth and migration to rural areas [10][11] - South Korea is advised to develop "base cities" in non-capital regions to enhance their industrial scale and competitiveness, thereby mitigating the over-expansion of the capital region [11][12] - Both countries face challenges in attracting populations to rural areas, with local governments needing to improve living conditions and job opportunities to retain residents [11][12]