中东火药桶再爆！美国突袭推升美元 全球屏息待伊朗反制

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions following the US airstrikes on Iran have led investors to seek safe-haven assets, resulting in a stronger US dollar in Asian trading [1] - Oil prices surged significantly, with Brent crude futures rising by 11% to $77 per barrel, as traders brace for potential further increases amid ongoing conflict [6] - The S&P 500 index has shown resilience, only down about 3% from its historical high in February, indicating that investors expect the conflict to remain localized [3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction to the conflict is mixed, with some believing it could limit Iran's nuclear ambitions while others see it as a potential escalation [7] - The dollar has appreciated approximately 0.9% since the conflict began, but this increase is relatively modest given its traditional role as a safe-haven currency [6] - The potential for Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz is a critical concern, as such an action would significantly impact oil supply and market stability [3][12] Group 3 - Market participants have reduced stock holdings in anticipation of conflict escalation, with the MSCI global index down 1.5% since mid-June [3] - The bond market has shown a complex reaction, with US Treasury yields initially falling but then reversing due to inflation concerns, resulting in minimal overall change since June 13 [6] - Analysts predict that if oil prices remain high, it could lead to increased political risks for the Trump administration, particularly as midterm elections approach [9][11]