Group 1 - The electric vehicle (EV) industry is experiencing strong demand as the peak season approaches, leading to an upward revision of the annual sales forecast to 16.53 million units for 2025 [1][2] - In the U.S., despite the impact of IRA subsidy budget cessation and tariff policies, EV sales from January to May still saw a 5% year-on-year increase [1] - In Europe, nine countries reported a 27% year-on-year increase in EV sales from January to April, indicating a strong start for carbon emission targets in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The supply side has reached a bottom after two years of price declines, with expectations of a turnaround in supply-demand dynamics by the end of this year and into Q2 2025 [1][2] - The demand for lithium battery installations is projected to exceed 1,899 GWh in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28%, with an increase of over 80 GWh from initial forecasts [2] - The industry is expected to see price recovery starting in Q2 2024, with leading companies likely to implement price increases, while previously unprofitable material suppliers are anticipated to return to profitability by Q3 2025 [2] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is cautious regarding the lithium battery sector due to uncertainties in demand for 2026, with a focus on confirming demand data in Q1 2026 [2][3] - Solid-state batteries are highlighted as a key area for investment, with expectations for sustained market interest and innovation from 2022 to 2024 [3] - Companies with early overseas expansion and production capacity are positioned favorably, as concerns over U.S. policy changes have diminished, and major automakers are advancing their battery manufacturing capabilities [3]
中信建投:电动车旺季驱动全年预期上修 年底供需格局有望扭转