地缘政治压过经济议题！美军空袭升级以伊冲突 未来一周还有何看点？

Geopolitical Risks and Market Resilience - The ongoing Israel-Iran conflict has not significantly impacted the market, but recent U.S. military actions may change this situation [2] - The S&P 500 index has remained relatively stable since the conflict began, with a slight increase in oil prices by approximately 10% since June 13 [2] - A warning has been issued regarding the potential economic impact if oil prices rise significantly, with a critical threshold identified at $120 per barrel [2] Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Discussions - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting concluded with no change in interest rates, maintaining a forecast of a 50 basis point cut by the end of 2025 [5] - There is a growing concern about "stagflation," where economic growth slows while inflation remains above the 2% target [5] - Disagreements among Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts and inflation trends are expected to influence future policy decisions [5] Inflation Data Outlook - The upcoming release of the May core PCE price index is anticipated to show an annual increase from 2.5% in April to 2.6%, with a monthly rate expected to remain at 0.1% [9] - Analysts suggest that while this data may be positive for the Fed, uncertainties surrounding tariff policies could complicate the inflation outlook [9] S&P 500 Index Performance - The S&P 500 index has been hovering near historical highs but has not yet surpassed the record closing of 6144.15 points set on February 19 [12] - Historical analysis indicates that after significant declines, the S&P 500 typically takes over three months to reach new highs after coming within 5% of previous peaks [12]