成本端受地缘影响维持强势 PTA估值驱动明显上升

Group 1 - The main PTA futures contract closed at 4978 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest by 86,628 contracts [1] - During the week, PTA futures opened at 4820 yuan/ton, peaked at 5074 yuan/ton, and dipped to a low of 4696 yuan/ton, resulting in a weekly change of 4.01% [1] Group 2 - A 450,000-ton PTA plant in South China is gradually shutting down for maintenance, expected to last around two months, while a 220,000-ton plant in Northeast China is already offline [2] - The overall operating rate of major weaving production bases in China has declined, with the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region's chemical fiber weaving rate and the East China dyeing factory operating rate also showing a high-level retreat [2] - The textile enterprises' order days have slightly rebounded to 9.9 days, down by 0.5 days, while the transaction volume in Light Textile City was 504 million meters, a decrease of 65 million meters [2] Group 3 - According to Ningzheng Futures, the supply side of PTA is expected to increase, while polyester production is showing a slight decline, indicating a weakening supply-demand expectation for PTA [3] - Hualian Futures noted a significant recovery in the supply side due to the commissioning of a 250,000-ton plant and the restart of several major plants, while the demand side for polyester is slightly down [3] - The overall industry inventory remains stable, but there is a potential for accumulation in the future, with strong cost support from crude oil influenced by geopolitical factors [3]