Price and Basis - Prices are stabilizing with a slight upward trend, while the hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot market shows some strength, and the rebar price difference is expanding [1] - Absolute prices have rebounded, but the basis remains weak; rebar futures have turned to a premium over spot prices, while HRC futures maintain a discount [1] - The price difference between HRC and rebar has expanded again [1] Cost and Profit - On the cost side, coking coal production has slightly decreased due to environmental inspections, but overall supply remains high; iron ore shipments in June have increased, leading to a slight accumulation in iron ore inventory [1] - The current profit ranking from high to low is: steel billet > hot-rolled coil > rebar > cold-rolled coil [1] - Rebar prices have fallen below both electric arc furnace and blast furnace cost lines, resulting in a noticeable reduction in rebar production [1] Supply - Overall production is showing a slight decline, with a small increase in current production levels; iron output increased by 0.6 million tons to 2.422 million tons [1] - The production of the five major steel products increased by 9.66 million tons to 8.68 million tons, with rebar production rising by 4.6 million tons to 2.122 million tons [1] - High-frequency production data shows a cumulative year-on-year increase of 19 million tons in iron element production from January to June, with a daily average increase of 100,000 tons [1] Demand - Demand for the five major steel products has slightly decreased, with rebar demand showing a significant decline, while HRC demand remains high [2] - Total demand for steel has slightly increased year-on-year, with domestic demand declining and external demand rising [2] - The overall demand remains high despite a peak and subsequent decline in demand [2] Inventory - Steel inventory is nearing a turning point for accumulation, with recent low-level accumulation showing some fluctuations [2] - Current inventory of the five major steel products has decreased by 15.7 million tons to 13.39 million tons, with rebar inventory down by 7 million tons to 5.51 million tons [2] Market Outlook - Black metal prices are stabilizing with a slight upward shift; futures prices have shown significant strength, while the basis remains weak [3] - The current market is still in the off-season for steel, with demand unlikely to improve marginally [3] - The strategy for the upcoming week includes holding short positions, with specific price levels for HRC and rebar contracts to consider for shorting [4]
钢材期货行情展望：高产量面临淡季需求考验 价格偏弱震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-06-23 02:22