油价与海运价酝酿新一轮狂飙? 美国空袭伊朗后两艘超级油轮在霍尔木兹紧急掉头

Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran, have significantly increased maritime shipping risks for oil and LNG carriers in the region [1][2][3] - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime route for global oil trade, is under potential threat of closure by Iran, which could lead to substantial increases in oil prices and shipping costs [1][2][3][6] - Historical context suggests that while Iran has threatened to close the Strait, actual complete and sustained closure remains unlikely due to the high economic costs involved for Iran itself [7] Shipping and Oil Market Impact - Two supertankers, capable of carrying approximately 2 million barrels of oil each, altered their course in the Strait of Hormuz, indicating a shift in shipping patterns due to heightened risks [1][2] - Following the U.S. airstrikes, shipping rates for oil tankers have surged nearly 90%, with further increases expected as geopolitical tensions escalate [3][6] - Goldman Sachs predicts that if oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz is significantly disrupted, Brent crude prices could spike to $110 per barrel, with a potential peak of $90 if Iranian oil supply decreases by 1.75 million barrels per day [3][6] Geopolitical Considerations - The U.S. airstrikes have led to increased electronic and signal interference incidents in the Persian Gulf, suggesting a more complex operational environment for shipping [2] - Analysts believe that while a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a low-probability event, increased Iranian control over the strait could lead to reduced oil exports from the region and rising shipping costs [6][7] - Historical analysis indicates that Iran has refrained from fully closing the Strait due to the potential economic repercussions, but the situation could change if the conflict escalates into a broader war [7]