黄金时间·一周金市回顾：三周以来首次周度收跌 金价能否打破6月收跌魔咒？

Core Viewpoint - The recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, while the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates has added to market uncertainty [1][2][4]. Geopolitical Tensions - The U.S. confirmed successful strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites, escalating concerns over regional stability and prompting fears of further conflict [2]. - Iranian officials have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, in response to U.S. actions, indicating potential for increased military engagement [2]. Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a decline of $64.95 or 1.89% last week, closing at $3468.52 per ounce, following a brief surge due to geopolitical tensions [1]. - Despite the recent drop, the demand for gold is expected to rise as investors seek refuge amid escalating geopolitical risks [3]. Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate, with 7 out of 19 officials suggesting no rate cuts are advisable this year, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without a change [4][5]. - The Fed's latest dot plot indicates a median federal funds rate of 3.9% for 2025, suggesting potential for future rate cuts depending on economic conditions [4]. Market Sentiment and Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut by the end of the year hover around 50 basis points, with any hawkish comments from Fed officials likely to impact the dollar and interest rate outlook [6]. - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming testimonies from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for insights into future monetary policy [5]. Gold Holdings and Investment Trends - Central banks are expected to increase their gold reserves, with 95% of surveyed banks anticipating growth in their holdings over the next 12 months [7]. - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, saw an increase in holdings by 9.75 tons, reaching a total of 950.24 tons, marking the fifth consecutive week of accumulation [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently in a bullish trend, with key resistance levels identified between $3400-$3424 and $3450-$3500 per ounce, while support levels are noted at $3372-$3360 and $3315-$3300 per ounce [7]. Domestic Market Insights - In the domestic market, gold futures have shown resilience, with key support at 775 CNY per gram and resistance levels identified between 790-795 CNY per gram [8].