【债市观察】季末地方债供给放量 央行重启国债买卖可能受到高度关注

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's recent operations and economic data indicate a mixed but generally supportive environment for the bond market, with expectations of further actions to stimulate the economy and manage interest rates [1][20]. Market Overview - The central bank conducted net withdrawal operations last week, leading to fluctuations in the funding environment due to tax payments and MLF maturities [1]. - Economic data released during the week exceeded expectations, contributing to a slight adjustment in bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield decreasing by approximately 0.5 basis points to 1.64% [1][4]. - The issuance of local government bonds is set to exceed 580 billion yuan, with net financing expected to surpass 500 billion yuan, marking the highest levels since December 2024 and February 2025 [1][8]. Bond Yield Changes - The yield curve for government bonds showed declines across various maturities, with the 1-year and 2-year yields decreasing by 4.5 basis points and 4.7 basis points, respectively [2]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a minor decline of 0.44 basis points, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing yields across the curve [3][4]. Trading Activity - The trading of long-term government bonds has seen strong buying interest, with the 30-year futures contract rising by 0.71% and the 10-year contract increasing by 0.14% [6]. - The overall bond market remains in a favorable environment, although further declines in interest rates may require additional catalysts such as central bank bond purchases [1][20]. Economic Data Insights - Industrial output and service sector growth have shown positive trends, with industrial value-added output growing by 5.8% year-on-year in May, and retail sales increasing by 6.4% [16][17]. - Fixed asset investment also demonstrated growth, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% for the first five months of the year [18]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts suggest that the current favorable conditions in the bond market are supported by both fundamental and liquidity factors, with expectations for a potential "bond bull" market [20]. - The resumption of government bond trading by the central bank is viewed as a long-term positive, although short-term impacts may vary [21].