以伊冲突搅动资本市场！分析师：黄金涨势重启，美元避险属性遭挑战

Group 1 - Analysts believe the recent performance of gold is a temporary phenomenon, and gold prices are expected to resume their upward trend, while the dollar's status as a traditional "safe-haven asset" will continue to be undermined by U.S. tariff policies and fiscal outlook [1][3] - Last week, spot gold closed at approximately $3,368 per ounce, marking a weekly decline of 1.8%, the first drop in three weeks, and the lowest level since June 12 [3] - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that geopolitical risk premiums for gold have rapidly dissipated since mid-June, but this may be a false signal; historically, gold prices have averaged a 3% increase during geopolitical events [3][4] Group 2 - The World Gold Council's recent survey found that geopolitical uncertainty and potential trade conflicts are primary reasons for emerging market central banks shifting to gold at a faster pace than developed economies [4] - Bank of America predicts that even without geopolitical risks, gold prices will continue to rise, driven by central bank purchases to hedge against deteriorating U.S. fiscal prospects [5] - Bank of America estimates that current central bank gold holdings are about 18% of U.S. public debt, up from 13% a decade ago, and anticipates gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce next year, a 19% increase from current levels [5] Group 3 - The dollar index experienced a rare increase, rebounding last week with its largest weekly gain in a month, driven by rising demand for safe-haven assets amid escalating Middle East conflicts [6] - Despite the recent rise, market participants believe the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset is under significant pressure due to ongoing concerns over U.S. trade policies and fiscal deficits [6] - The complex sentiment towards the dollar is reflected in U.S. Treasury yields, which have shown little change since the onset of the conflict, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.39% [6]