黄奇帆：生产性服务业是GDP增长极 亟需补足现代产业体系短板

Core Insights - The Chinese economy is entering a phase focused on developing new quality productivity over the next 5-10 years, emphasizing both new strategic emerging industries and the transformation of existing manufacturing through green, low-carbon, and digital intelligence [1][6] Group 1: Importance of Productive Services Industry - The productive services industry is crucial for enhancing manufacturing technology and efficiency, serving as a key component throughout the entire industrial chain [1][2] - It consists of ten major categories, including technology development, logistics, financial services, market services, green services, digital services, trade, branding, consulting, and talent training [2][3] - The productive services industry is a growth driver for GDP, with its share in the U.S. rising from 10% in 1950 to 50% in 2024, while China's share has increased from just over 10% in 1980 to 27%-31% recently [3][4] Group 2: Economic Impact and Growth Potential - The productive services sector is a breeding ground for high-quality manufacturing and unicorn companies, with significant contributions to the capital market [3][4] - It enhances industrial profit margins and adds high-end value to manufactured goods [5] - A developed productive services industry can significantly increase total factor productivity by focusing on knowledge, talent, and innovation rather than traditional resource inputs [6][8] Group 3: Current Challenges in China - China's productive services industry accounts for only 27%-30% of GDP, lower than the 40%-50% seen in developed countries [8] - The service trade's share in China is only 12%, compared to 30%-40% in Europe and the U.S. [8][9] - Profit margins in China's industrial manufacturing are around 7%, below the global average of 10%, indicating a need for improvement [9] Group 4: Development Strategies - Key strategies for developing the productive services industry include fostering small and medium-sized enterprises, nurturing leading companies, and establishing industry internet platforms [10] - By 2040, it is projected that the productive services sector could account for 35% of GDP, with manufacturing remaining at around 27%, optimizing the industrial structure [10]