618失速：当电商进入“康波周期”的瓶颈期

Core Insights - The 2025 "618" shopping festival reflects a shift in the e-commerce industry, indicating a potential "Kondratieff wave" bottleneck, characterized by consumer interest decline and stagnation in user growth [2][6][11] Group 1: Kondratieff Wave Theory - The "Kondratieff wave" theory, proposed by economist Nikolai Kondratieff, describes long economic cycles of approximately 40 to 60 years, consisting of four stages: innovation-driven growth, peak bubble, deleveraging recession, and industrial restructuring recovery [3][4] - The theory can be applied to the e-commerce sector, revealing similar cyclical patterns in its development [4] Group 2: E-commerce Development Over Two Decades - The Chinese e-commerce industry has evolved over 20 years, transitioning from the C2C model in the PC era to B2C driven by mobile internet, and now to content and social e-commerce [5] - The industry is currently in a bottleneck or transformation phase from 2021 to 2025, marked by the disappearance of user growth and a shift towards rational consumption [5][6] Group 3: Signs of Bottleneck in 2025 "618" - User interest is waning, with daily active users (DAU) growth slowing to under 5%, significantly lower than previous double-digit growth rates [6][7] - Major platforms are facing a traffic dilemma, shifting focus from transaction scale to operational quality, indicating a slowdown in growth [7][8] - There is a severe lack of innovation, with promotional strategies becoming homogenized and reliant on traditional methods like subsidies and live-streaming [8][9] - Consumer attitudes are changing towards value, sustainability, and personalization, moving away from price-driven decisions [9][10] - Platforms are adopting cost-cutting measures instead of aggressive expansion, reflecting a more results-oriented operational approach [10] Group 4: Future Directions for E-commerce Recovery - Future recovery in the e-commerce sector may be driven by AI innovations that reconstruct consumption experiences and interactions [12] - Emotional connections between brands and consumers are becoming core assets, with younger generations willing to pay for values and cultural alignment [13] - Sustainable e-commerce practices and circular economy initiatives are emerging as new growth points, aligning with global trends [14] Conclusion - The 2025 "618" festival signifies a transition rather than an end, indicating the conclusion of one cycle and the beginning of another, necessitating innovation and new consumption cultures for future growth [15]