Core Viewpoint - The domestic oilseed market is experiencing a decline, with soybean meal futures showing a notable drop in price, indicating potential challenges in the sector [1]. Group 1: Market Data - Argentina's soybean exports in May reached 1,224,096.07 tons, while soybean meal exports totaled 2,339,966.64 tons [2]. - On June 20, the total soybean meal transaction volume in major oil mills across the country was 138,800 tons, a decrease of 30,525 tons from the previous trading day, with spot transactions at 43,700 tons [2]. - As of June 12, the USDA reported that net sales of soybean meal for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 160,000 tons, down from 215,000 tons the previous week, while net sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 14,000 tons, down from 47,000 tons [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Hualian Futures noted that the current basis quote for soybean meal in Guangdong is -150, with weather conditions in key soybean-producing areas expected to be unfavorable for soybean growth in the coming weeks, leading to a potential short-term increase in soybean meal prices [3]. - According to the USDA's weekly crop progress report, as of June 8, 90% of the U.S. soybean planting was completed, compared to 84% the previous week and 86% the same time last year, with the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans dropping from 68% to 66% [3]. - Shengyin Wanguo Futures indicated that domestic oil mills have significantly increased their operating rates, which is expected to accelerate the accumulation of soybean meal stocks, while the cost support from imported soybeans suggests that soybean meal prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term [3].
受进口大豆成本支撑 豆粕短期预计继续高位震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-06-23 06:20