Core Viewpoint - The U.S. airstrikes on Iran have led to a significant increase in international oil prices, raising concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [1][2]. Oil Price Movement - On June 22, the price of NY crude oil futures rose above $78 per barrel, marking an increase of over 6% compared to the closing price on June 20, before retreating to around $75 [1]. - Brent crude oil futures surpassed $80 per barrel, reaching a high of $81.4, with a gain of 5.7%, before dropping below $79 [1]. Strait of Hormuz Concerns - The Strait of Hormuz is vital for oil transport, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily in 2024, accounting for about 20% of global daily oil consumption [1]. - The Iranian parliament has reportedly reached a consensus on the potential closure of the Strait, with the final decision pending from the Supreme National Security Council of Iran [1]. Impact on Iranian Oil Exports - If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iran would be unable to export its crude oil, which currently stands at an average production of 3.3 million barrels per day and an export volume of 1.84 million barrels per day as of May [2]. Price Projections - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Rapidan Energy Group suggest that if the Strait remains closed for an extended period, international oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel [2]. Shipping and Military Risks - Although the Strait has not been officially closed, shipping times and costs are expected to rise, prompting close monitoring of Iran's responses [2]. - The U.S. has amassed significant military forces in the Gulf region, and any Iranian actions regarding the Strait could provoke a substantial military response [2].
综述丨美国空袭伊朗 国际油价飙升
Xin Hua She·2025-06-23 06:53