民生证券：从业绩分化到资负协同 重视保险α和β双击机会

Group 1: Life Insurance Sector - The overall quality of life insurance business is expected to improve significantly by 2025, with a notable increase in New Business Value (NBV) and stabilization of individual insurance channel manpower [1] - New single premium growth is anticipated to remain under pressure, but the overall premium is expected to maintain steady growth due to support from renewal premiums [1] - The individual insurance channel is expected to stabilize, with a potential quarter-on-quarter increase in manpower for leading listed insurance companies in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Property and Casualty Insurance Sector - The property and casualty insurance sector is projected to see steady growth, with car insurance premiums expected to grow by approximately 4-6%, reaching nearly 1 trillion yuan by the end of 2025 [2] - Non-car insurance is expected to grow faster than car insurance, driven by policy-based and innovative business models [2] - The combined ratio (COR) is expected to improve due to better claims management and cost control, with a noticeable improvement in claims during the first quarter of 2025 [2] Group 3: Investment Sector - Long-term capital is expected to enter the market, with equity investments becoming a core variable for investment returns [3] - The investment portfolio structure is likely to see an increase in equity investments, with the proportion of stocks in life insurance companies rising to 8.4%, a year-on-year increase of 0.9 percentage points [3] - Under IFRS 9, the investment portfolio is expected to continue to allocate to high-dividend and high-return assets for greater certainty [3] Group 4: Embedded Value - The NBV is expected to continue improving, with a focus on asset-liability matching capabilities among leading insurance companies [4] - The negative impact of long-term investment return rate assumptions is expected to be gradually mitigated, reducing potential pressure from interest rate spreads [4] - Companies with better asset-liability matching and quality business structures are likely to benefit more, with a significant recovery in Return on Embedded Value (ROEV) anticipated [4]