智通财经网·2025-06-23 08:37Core Viewpoint - The current market is in a "low inventory, low price, low demand, high supply elasticity" weak equilibrium state, with future trends dependent on the intensity of production cuts and the speed of policy implementation [1][2] Supply - The government is continuing to implement crude steel production controls and promote "dual control of carbon emissions" [3] - Strict enforcement of production capacity replacement is mandated, prohibiting the addition of new steel production capacity under various pretenses [3] Demand - The proportion of steel used in manufacturing has been steadily increasing, nearing 50%, supported by stable traditional manufacturing and rapid growth in high-end manufacturing and strategic emerging industries [4] - The forecast for steel demand in manufacturing is projected to reach 440 million tons by 2025, driven by supportive monetary and fiscal policies [4] Profit - If a production cut of 50 million tons is implemented, the annual crude steel output would be 955 million tons, leading to a potential recovery in industry profitability with gross profit per ton expected to reach around 400 yuan [5][6] - If production remains at last year's levels, a rebound in output in the second half of the year could lead to oversupply and further profit decline [6] Investment Recommendations - For ordinary steel investments, focus on high dividend and high yield companies, particularly leaders in various downstream sectors, such as Hualing Steel and Baosteel [7] - For special steel and new materials, the demand for high-end special steel is expected to grow rapidly, with companies like Nanjing Steel and Jiu Li Special Materials being highlighted for potential investment [7]