ETF日报：市场整体风险偏好降低后，红利风格有望维持较好表现，可关注红利国企ETF

Market Overview - A-shares opened lower but closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index at 3381.58 points, up 0.65%, and a trading volume of 442.8 billion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10048.39 points, up 0.43%, with a trading volume of 679.8 billion yuan [1] - The computer, defense, and coal sectors led the gains, while food and beverage, and home appliances sectors lagged [1] Geopolitical Events - On June 21, U.S. President Trump announced the completion of attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, prompting calls from Iranian officials for missile strikes on U.S. naval vessels and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [1] - U.S. Vice President Pence stated that any disruption of shipping in the Strait would be "suicidal" for Iran, as the Iranian economy heavily relies on this route [1] - The market reacted calmly to these developments, with gold and oil prices initially rising but later declining, indicating a low perceived risk of the Strait being closed [1] A-share Market Sentiment - Short-term risk appetite in A-shares has decreased, with coal and banking sectors leading the gains again [2] - Port data has shown early signs of decline, and the macroeconomic focus is shifting from external demand to domestic policy [2] - Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pose additional risks, but such event-driven trades are considered difficult and short-lived [2] Bond Market Outlook - The continued easing of monetary policy and weakening domestic data may lead to better performance in the bond market [3] - The current bond market rally is supported by a more favorable monetary easing environment compared to previous rounds [3] - Major banks are actively buying short-term government bonds, leading to a decline in short-term interest rates and a steepening yield curve [3] Financial Sector Performance - The Financial ETF (510230) rose by 1.35%, driven primarily by the banking sector [4] - The banking sector has shown a broad-based increase, with various types of banks reaching new highs [4] Banking Sector Analysis - The trading logic of the banking sector has shifted significantly, moving from a strong positive correlation with macroeconomic fundamentals to a strong negative correlation with the ten-year government bond yield [7] - The market has begun to downplay the impact of bank fundamentals, particularly net interest margins, due to the perceived dividend stability of bank stocks [8] - Despite a narrowing net interest margin, banks have improved asset quality, which supports higher valuations [10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on financial ETFs (510230) and consider buying on dips, given the current market conditions and the banking sector's performance [10]