“双焦”期货价格止跌反弹 下半年行情或仍动态寻底

Group 1: Market Trends - The domestic futures market saw a collective rise in coking coal and coke prices on June 23, with coking coal up 1.25% to 807 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 100 yuan since the beginning of the month, while coke fell 0.22% to 1385 yuan/ton, also up by 100 yuan from the start of June [1] - The fourth round of price reductions for coke has been implemented, leading to a weak price trend in the market despite the recent rebound in futures prices [1][2] - The overall coking coal market is experiencing a downward trend due to sufficient supply and low demand from coking plants, which are maintaining low inventory strategies [2] Group 2: Profitability and Production - As of June 19, the profitability of coking plants is at the breakeven point, with profits of 33 yuan/ton in Shandong, 18 yuan/ton in Hebei, and 17 yuan/ton in Shanxi [3] - The steel mills are experiencing improved profitability, with profits for steel billets increasing by 35 yuan/ton to 192 yuan/ton and rebar profits rising by 31.4 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [3] - The operating rate of independent coking enterprises has decreased to 74.14%, while the operating rate of blast furnaces has slightly increased to 83.54%, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance in the black industry chain [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests that the rebound in coal and coke prices will depend on market expectations regarding supply-demand balance, with potential disruptions expected due to stricter safety inspections and upstream profit pressures [5] - The expected price range for coking coal and coke futures contracts in the second half of the year is projected to be between 650-1050 yuan/ton and 1150-1500 yuan/ton, respectively [5]