美国“下场”后，三问中东局势走向

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have escalated tensions and raised concerns about potential retaliation from Iran, including the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transport [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Military Actions and Iranian Response - The U.S. has claimed to have "completely destroyed" key Iranian nuclear sites, but Iranian officials assert that their uranium enrichment capabilities remain intact, indicating that the conflict is far from over [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that Iran may respond with limited actions rather than a full-scale retaliation, as the current situation mirrors past events where Iran faced pressure but opted for restraint [2][3]. Group 2: Strait of Hormuz and Oil Supply Concerns - Iranian officials are evaluating the potential for blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for oil exports, with daily shipments through the strait averaging around 20 million barrels, accounting for 20% of global oil consumption [5][4]. - Historical context shows that Iran has previously threatened to close the strait during times of heightened tensions but has refrained from taking such drastic measures, suggesting that a full blockade is unlikely unless absolutely necessary [7][4]. Group 3: Long-term Conflict Dynamics - Israeli officials indicate that their military objectives regarding Iran's nuclear and missile programs are nearing completion, and they are not inclined to engage in a prolonged conflict, which would not serve their interests [8][12]. - Both Israel and Iran face significant challenges in sustaining a long-term conflict, with economic and military pressures likely to influence future interactions and potential diplomatic resolutions [12].