Will Nebius Achieve its $1B ARR and Up to $700M Revenue Targets?

Core Insights - Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) is targeting annualized run-rate revenue (ARR) of $750 million to $1 billion and total revenues of $500–$700 million by 2025, following a 385% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2025 and a 700% surge in ARR [1][9] - The company reported an ARR of $310 million in April 2025, indicating strong momentum for the second quarter [1] Company Growth and Strategy - Nebius is experiencing solid growth in its core artificial intelligence (AI) business, benefiting from a full-stack approach that includes high-performance GPU cloud infrastructure and AI development tools [2] - The company raised $700 million in funding from notable investors like NVIDIA and Accel in December 2024, which is being used to expand aggressively in North America and Europe [3] - In June 2025, Nebius announced a private placement of $1 billion in convertible notes to capitalize on the AI-infrastructure boom and enhance revenue opportunities in 2026 [3] Market Position and Competition - Nebius holds a minority stake of approximately 28% in ClickHouse, which is reportedly in a fundraising round that may value it at around $6 billion [4] - The global demand for AI-specific infrastructure is increasing, with IDC forecasting AI infrastructure spending to reach $223 billion by 2028, where cloud environments will account for 82% of the market [5] Financial Performance - Nebius shares surged 153.3% over the past year, outperforming the Internet – Software and Services industry's growth of 39.3% [10] - The company's shares are currently trading at a price/book ratio of 3.58X, lower than the industry's 4.07X [11]