Can Caterpillar's E&T Segment Continue to be Its Saving Grace?

Core Insights - Caterpillar Inc. is increasingly depending on its Energy & Transportation (E&T) segment to mitigate the effects of ongoing weakness in its Construction Industries and Resource Industries segments [1] Group 1: E&T Segment Performance - The E&T segment generated $28.8 billion in revenues in 2024, representing 47% of Caterpillar's total revenues, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.5% from 2021 to 2024 [2][12] - Operating margins for the E&T segment have improved from 18.7% in Q3 2022 to 24.3% in Q1 2025, helping to offset declines in the other segments [3][12] - Projections indicate that the E&T segment's operating margin will reach 24.8% in 2025, with operating profit expected to be $6.02 billion, a 5.1% increase year-over-year [4] Group 2: Future Growth Expectations - E&T segment sales are forecasted to grow by 1% to $29.2 billion in 2025, while the Construction Industries and Resource Industries segments are expected to decline by 6.4% and 3.7%, respectively [5] - Over the 2024–2027 period, the E&T segment is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 2.5%, outperforming the Construction Industries' projected 0.6% and Resource Industries' 2.1% growth [5] Group 3: Market Drivers - Key growth drivers for the E&T segment include sustainability initiatives in the Oil and Gas sector, which accounts for 29% of segment sales, and increasing demand from data centers supporting generative AI, which is expected to boost Power Generation sales (32% of segment sales) [6] - The transportation sector is also expected to see sales improvements due to increased rail services, while growth in marine and industrial sectors will further enhance the segment's performance [7] Group 4: Competitive Landscape - Caterpillar's E&T segment competes with Cummins Inc.'s Power Systems segment and GE Vernova Inc.'s Power segment [8] - Cummins' Power Systems segment contributed 16% of its total sales in 2024, with a 13% increase to $6.4 billion year-over-year [9] - GE Vernova's Power segment generated $18 billion in fiscal 2024, marking a 4% increase year-over-year, with expectations for mid-single-digit organic revenue growth in 2025 [10][11]