财政政策组合拳给力 政府债券保持快节奏发行可期

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, China's economy has shown strong resilience and vitality despite complex challenges, significantly supported by the effective implementation of proactive fiscal policies [1] Fiscal Policy and Government Debt - The total new government debt in China for this year reached 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to 2024, indicating a notable rise in fiscal spending intensity [1][2] - The issuance of ultra-long special bonds is set to increase by 30% this year, with a planned issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan, which is 300 billion yuan more than the previous year [2] - As of June 23, 2023, 4.84 trillion yuan of ultra-long special bonds have been issued, achieving a progress rate of 37.2% [2] Special Bonds and Their Impact - The issuance of 5 trillion yuan in central financial institution capital injection special bonds has been completed, aimed at supporting state-owned commercial banks in enhancing their core tier one capital [3] - The rapid issuance of refinancing special bonds, aimed at replacing hidden debts, reached 17.715 trillion yuan by June 23, 2023, achieving 88.6% of the annual quota [3] - The acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to help local governments free up funds for development and construction, thereby enhancing growth momentum [3][4] New Special Bonds and Investment - The issuance of new special bonds has accelerated, with a total of 18.126 trillion yuan issued by June 23, 2023, representing a significant increase of 36.1% compared to the same period in 2024 [4] - Special bonds remain a key tool for government investment, playing a crucial role in stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations [4][5] - The increase in special bonds is expected to create a positive cycle between government fiscal spending and microeconomic entities [5] Future Outlook - The issuance of government bonds is anticipated to maintain a rapid pace in the second half of the year, with expectations that new special bonds and ultra-long special bonds will be largely completed by the end of the third quarter [5][6] - The proactive fiscal policies are expected to continue to support investment and consumption, contributing to the achievement of annual economic growth targets [6][7]