中长期大额存单货架越来越空：低利率重塑银行负债端业态

Core Viewpoint - The decline in the issuance of medium- and long-term large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) reflects banks' proactive adjustments in their liability management strategies amid pressure on net interest margins [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Changes in Large-Denomination CDs - Many national banks have stopped issuing medium- and long-term large-denomination CDs, with the longest available term now being two years, and the interest rates for two-year CDs being the same as for one-year CDs at 1.4% [1][2]. - The interest rates for large-denomination CDs have become comparable to those of regular fixed-term deposits, diminishing their appeal [2][3]. Impact of Low-Interest Rates - The low-interest environment is forcing banks to reshape their deposit strategies and liability structures, shifting focus from scale to quality and efficiency [4][5]. - Banks are increasingly converting medium- and long-term deposits into short-term deposits to manage costs effectively [3][4]. Net Interest Margin Pressure - The net interest margin for commercial banks in China was reported at 1.43% in Q1 2025, a decrease of 9 basis points from Q4 2024, indicating ongoing pressure on profitability [3][4]. - Different types of banks, including state-owned and joint-stock banks, have experienced varying degrees of decline in net interest margins, with some facing significant challenges in maintaining profitability [3][4]. Shift in Deposit Strategies - Regional small and medium-sized banks are rapidly adjusting their deposit rates, sometimes lowering them below those of larger banks, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics [4][5]. - Banks are focusing on optimizing their deposit structures by increasing short-term deposits and reducing reliance on high-cost liabilities [5][6]. Future Trends in Deposits - There is an expectation that funds will flow towards non-bank financial products, the real economy, and potentially back to smaller banks due to their delayed rate adjustments [6][7]. - Investors are encouraged to reconsider traditional reliance on deposits and explore diversified investment strategies to enhance long-term returns [7].