Buy, Sell, or Hold FedEx Stock as Its Q4 Earnings Approach?

Core Insights - FedEx is set to report its fiscal fourth quarter results, providing insights into the transportation industry's delivery services amid tariff-related challenges [1][3] - The company is actively assisting customers with international logistics to navigate the evolving tariff landscape [2] FedEx's Q4 Expectations & Outlook - FedEx's Q4 sales are expected to decline by over 1% to $21.73 billion from $22.11 billion in the same quarter last year, while earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise by 9% to $5.93 from $5.41 [3] - For fiscal year 2025, total sales are anticipated to decrease slightly by less than 0.5% to $87.44 billion, with a rebound projected for FY26, increasing by 2% to $89.41 billion [4] Performance and Earnings History - FedEx has missed sales estimates in three of the last four quarters and earnings expectations in two of the last four quarters, with an average EPS surprise of -5.79% [5] - The reported EPS for the last four quarters were 4.51, 4.05, 3.60, and 5.41, compared to estimates of 4.65, 3.90, 4.82, and 5.34 respectively [5] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, FedEx stock has fallen nearly 20%, underperforming the broader market and trailing competitors like GXO Logistics, which has gained 12% [6] - FedEx is trading at a forward earnings multiple of 11.5X, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 23X and also below UPS's 14X and GXO Logistics' 19X [7] Dividend Appeal - FedEx offers a 2.44% annual dividend yield, which, while lower than UPS's 6.61%, exceeds the S&P 500's average of 1.25% [9] - The company has demonstrated a strong annualized dividend growth rate of 21.96% over the past five years, with a payout ratio of 31%, indicating potential for future increases [9] Current Market Position - Ahead of its Q4 results, FedEx holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting that while it presents value, investors may want to wait for confirmation of overcoming tariff-related challenges [12]