油价暴跌打开降息窗口？中东局势缓和或加速美联储7月转向

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the announcement of a temporary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, leading to a significant drop in international oil prices, with U.S. crude oil futures falling by 5.1% to $65.02 per barrel [1][4] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East had previously caused volatility in the oil market, but the announcement of the ceasefire has alleviated concerns about supply disruptions [4] - The current oil market fundamentals are driving price movements, with expectations of oversupply in the second half of the year and increasing pressure from rising inventories [4] Group 2 - OPEC+ countries, including Iran, are ramping up production, which contributes to the expectation of a more relaxed supply environment [4] - The Trump administration's support for a low-energy price strategy aligns with the recent military actions and has pressured energy producers to lower prices and increase domestic drilling [4] - The decline in oil prices may provide a window for alleviating global inflation, with potential implications for interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [4]