Chan Ye Xin Xi Wang·2025-06-24 01:20Core Viewpoint - The aniline industry in China has experienced significant changes in production capacity and market dynamics, with a notable increase in capacity from 338,000 tons in 2020 to 449,500 tons in 2023, but is expected to stabilize around 450,000 tons in 2024 due to slowed growth in MDI production capacity [1][5][20]. Industry Overview - Aniline, also known as aminobenzene, is a crucial organic compound with the chemical formula C6H7N, characterized as a colorless to pale yellow oily liquid [2][3]. - The aniline industry is structured into three segments: upstream raw material supply, midstream production, and downstream application, with key applications in MDI, rubber additives, dyes, and pharmaceuticals [3][11]. Production Side - From 2017 to 2020, China's aniline production capacity decreased from 3.91 million tons to 3.38 million tons due to supply-side reforms and stricter environmental policies [5]. - In 2021, the trend reversed as new aniline facilities were commissioned, leading to a recovery in production capacity, which reached 4.495 million tons in 2023 [5][20]. - The growth in MDI production capacity is expected to slow significantly in 2024, limiting the demand for new aniline capacity [5][20]. Import and Export - China has achieved self-sufficiency in aniline, with imports remaining below 0.1 thousand tons from 2018 to 2024, indicating strong domestic supply capabilities [7]. - Aniline exports saw a significant decline in 2023, dropping to approximately 97,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 65.49%, but are projected to rebound to 213,400 tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 117.98% [7][9]. - The average export price of aniline has risen from 4,874.17 yuan/ton in 2020 to 9,765.64 yuan/ton in 2024, marking a cumulative increase of 100.35% [9]. Consumption Side - The MDI industry is the largest consumer of aniline, accounting for about 80% of market consumption in 2024, driven by the growing demand for high-performance materials in various sectors [11][19]. - Domestic MDI production capacity has expanded significantly since 2000, with projections indicating a continued annual growth rate of 6% to 8% over the next five years, further driving aniline demand [11][19]. Key Enterprises - The aniline industry in China is characterized by high entry barriers and is dominated by major players such as Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and Shandong Haihua, which possess integrated advantages and strong market positions [13][15]. - Wanhua Chemical leads the industry with an aniline production capacity of 2.16 million tons, accounting for nearly 50% of the national total [17]. Development Trends - The regulatory environment is becoming stricter, promoting standardized and green development within the aniline industry, with policies focusing on environmental protection and safety production [19]. - The supply-demand balance in the aniline market remains tight, with production capacity steadily increasing while new capacity additions are limited [20][21]. - China's aniline industry is expanding its export market, with increasing international competitiveness, particularly in Europe, where demand for imported aniline is rising [22].