长城基金汪立：市场进攻仍需等待，哑铃策略优先

Market Overview - The market experienced an overall increase in trading volume but showed a downward trend, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.215 trillion yuan [1] - Value stocks outperformed growth stocks, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks [1] - The banking, telecommunications, and electronics sectors performed well, while beauty care, textiles, and pharmaceuticals lagged behind [1] Macro Outlook - Domestic demand shows signs of recovery, but several consumption data points, particularly in real estate and automotive sectors, are weakening [2] - New housing sales in major cities are significantly lower than the same period last year, with only Beijing showing stronger performance [2] - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, pose a risk of stagflation [2] - Key areas of focus for the second half of the year include durable goods consumption, export growth, and potential policy responses [2] International Developments - The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with WTI crude rising from a low of $55 to around $75 [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% during its June meeting, indicating a cautious approach amid inflation uncertainties [3] - The risk of stagflation is increasing globally, which could negatively impact risk assets [3] Market Expectations - The market shows resilience compared to the previous two years, despite existing pressures on the fundamentals [4] - The upcoming policy window in July may lead to market reactions based on new policy stimuli [4] - There is an expectation of a potential market rebound driven by policy support, although short-term adjustments may still be necessary [4] Market Style - The narrowing of thematic trading suggests that large-cap stocks may offer better elasticity and value compared to small-cap stocks [5] - The market is expected to engage in policy trading in the first three weeks of July, with historical trends indicating that large-cap stocks may outperform [5] - Suggested sectors for attention include precious metals, military industry, and high-dividend stocks, which may benefit from policy support [5]