硫黄：冲高回落 震荡调整

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic sulfur market experienced a significant price increase, reaching a peak above 2600 yuan per ton, followed by a decline, with the average price around 2240 yuan as of June 19, reflecting a 5.5% decrease [1] - Over the past five months, sulfur prices have risen by over 68%, marking a notable performance in the chemical industry despite overall market weakness [1] - The recent price fluctuations are attributed to increased supply, weakened demand, and soft international markets, leading to a short-term focus on digesting high-priced inventory and technical corrections [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - As of late May, the inventory of sulfur at major ports in China reached 2.084 million tons, a 2.51% increase from the previous month, with imports at 1.0704 million tons, up 19.83% [2] - Domestic production also increased to 938,700 tons, a 2.3% rise, contributing to the overall growth in supply capacity [2] - The increase in port inventory and domestic production has pressured high transaction prices, leading to a more aggressive selling approach from traders [2] Group 3: Demand Trends - The demand for sulfur is expected to weaken significantly in June, with projected consumption dropping to 1.6824 million tons, a 15.46% decrease from May [3] - The utilization rates for sulfur-related products such as sulfuric acid and ammonium phosphate have declined, indicating a contraction in demand [3] - Despite a strong start to the year, the onset of the sulfur consumption off-season and unexpected production halts in the industry are contributing to the anticipated demand drop [3] Group 4: International Market Influences - The international sulfur market remained stable at high levels in May, which supported domestic prices; however, in June, suppliers had to lower prices due to buyer resistance [4] - The price gap between domestic and international markets has narrowed, with current prices aligning more closely [4] - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, may impact sulfur production and international market dynamics, potentially leading to price fluctuations [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite current demand challenges, there is a growing optimism in the market due to geopolitical factors that could influence sulfur supply [6] - The chemical fertilizer industry, while facing some demand decline, remains relatively stable, suggesting limited downside for sulfur prices in the short term [6] - Recent price increases at ports following geopolitical events indicate potential for a rebound in market sentiment [6]