美联储降息信号初现 政策风向正悄然转变

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting towards a more dovish stance, with increasing expectations for interest rate cuts amid diverging views between the market and policymakers [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Stance - Federal Reserve officials are showing openness to interest rate cuts, with key figures indicating a shift in policy direction [1][2] - Michelle Bowman, a Federal Reserve governor, expressed support for potential rate cuts if inflation continues to be controlled, marking a significant shift from her previous cautious stance [2] - Austan Goolsbee, Chicago Fed President, noted that the impact of tariff increases on the economy has been less severe than expected, reinforcing the possibility of continued dovish policy [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The U.S. interest rate futures market is pricing in a greater extent of future rate cuts than the Federal Reserve's official forecasts, highlighting a growing disconnect between market expectations and Fed guidance [1] - Christopher Waller, a key figure seen as a potential successor to Powell, indicated willingness to support rate cuts at the upcoming FOMC meeting, further fueling market expectations for a dovish shift [3] Group 3: Dollar Index Trends - The dollar index has been under pressure, recently falling below the 100 mark, with potential further declines if it breaches the 95 support level [3][4] - Technical indicators suggest that while the dollar index remains below key moving averages, there are signs of short-term momentum improvement [3][4] - The dollar's movement is influenced by geopolitical risks and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts, creating a complex market environment [3]