市场避险情绪迅速回落，原油涨势“昙花一现”？

Group 1 - The easing of geopolitical tensions has led to a rapid decline in market risk aversion, resulting in a significant drop in oil prices, with WTI crude oil falling over 6% to a low of $64.38 per barrel and Brent crude oil dropping over 4% to $67.41 per barrel [1] - Domestic crude oil futures also saw a sharp decline, with prices hitting a limit down at 520 yuan per barrel, representing an 8.7% drop [1] - Oil and gas stocks experienced collective declines, with several companies, including Tongyuan Petroleum and Zhongjie Oil, hitting their daily limit down [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ has begun increasing production, with a planned cumulative increase of approximately 1.37 million barrels per day by July, and has about 5 million barrels per day of idle capacity available for further increases [2] - Analysts suggest that while geopolitical risks remain, the current market is more concerned about supply and demand dynamics rather than supply shocks, given the oversupply situation [2] - The future trajectory of oil prices is expected to be influenced by developments in the Middle East, with potential scenarios ranging from a temporary spike in prices to significant increases depending on the geopolitical situation [3] Group 3 - Three potential scenarios for oil price movements have been outlined: 1. If geopolitical conflicts show no clear progress, oil prices may see a temporary spike of around $10, with Brent crude reaching approximately $80 before declining [2] 2. If conflicts persist, oil prices could rise by $5-10 per barrel, with Brent potentially reaching above $85, but long-term pressures may push prices below $70 [3] 3. In the event of a full-scale conflict, such as Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could see a premium of $30 per barrel, with the upper limit depending on the duration of geopolitical tensions [3]