市场情绪较为悲观 短期集运盘面空头趋势有望延续

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping over 6%, indicating a bearish trend in the market [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 24, the shipping index (European line) futures fell to a low of 1746.4 points, closing at 1784.1 points, reflecting a decline of 6.36% [1]. - The latest SCFIS European line index recorded 1937.14 points, showing a slight increase of 14.1 points from the previous period [2][3]. Group 2: Price Adjustments - Shipping companies are showing signs of price adjustments, with Hapag-Lloyd reducing July mid-month rates from $2635/$4335 to $2435/$3835, representing decreases of 8% and 12% for small and large containers, respectively [2]. - CMA CGM has also adjusted its rates downwards, indicating that booking conditions are not meeting expectations, with a notable price reduction of $15 and $45 for different container types [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trends - The market sentiment remains pessimistic, with expectations of continued downward pressure on the shipping index due to oversupply and weak demand [2][3]. - The geopolitical situation has shown signs of easing, with reports of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, which may reduce the impact on the shipping market [2][3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The EC2508 contract is expected to face strong resistance above the 2000-point mark, with a bearish trend likely to persist in the short term [3]. - Key support levels for EC2508 are identified around 1800 points, with expectations for the EC2506 delivery price to be below 1850 points [3].