凯基：上调年内恒指目标至25500点 看好6大板块、13只中概股

Group 1 - KGI expects China's economy to continue recovering in the second half of the year due to policy support, a rebound in domestic demand, and the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector, while remaining cautious of uncertainties such as US-China tensions and geopolitical issues [1] - KGI has raised its target for the Hang Seng Index from 23,200 points to 25,500 points, corresponding to an estimated price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 11 times, with a potential growth of 6.3% in the second half of the year [1] - KGI is optimistic about sectors including industrials, internet, materials, telecommunications, healthcare, and utilities, and has recommended 13 Chinese concept stocks [1] Group 2 - KGI indicates that the global economy will enter a slowdown phase in the second half of the year, particularly in emerging markets, with the most significant slowdown occurring in the US, where economic growth may drop below 1% [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff policies has impacted consumer confidence and corporate orders in the US, with weak labor market data further affecting wages and consumption [2] - KGI anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, with a continued reduction of 50 to 75 basis points in 2026 [2] Group 3 - KGI recommends maintaining the ACE strategy for the second half of the year, which includes investing in gold and other alternative assets to hedge against inflation, favoring high-rated bonds, and diversifying investments in quality stocks to balance cyclical and defensive equities [3]