欧洲央行委员释放重磅信号：未来半年降息窗口或开启 通胀预期仍温和

Group 1 - The European Central Bank (ECB) retains the policy space to initiate interest rate cuts within the next six months, as stated by François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the ECB Governing Council [1] - Current market assessments indicate that inflation expectations remain moderate, which could justify further easing of monetary conditions in the next six monetary policy cycles if this trend continues [1] - The significant appreciation of the euro against major currencies has provided a hedging effect against rising international oil prices [1] Group 2 - Villeroy distinguishes between neutral interest rates and terminal rates, explaining that while they may converge under certain conditions, they serve different functions within the policy framework [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is identified as a new major uncertainty, with potential for dual-directional volatility [1] - The ECB is closely monitoring international oil price trends, but emphasizes that oil price fluctuations alone are insufficient to trigger policy responses unless they affect core inflation and inflation expectations [1] Group 3 - Regarding potential changes in US-EU trade relations, Villeroy assesses that a substantial escalation in trade tensions could exert downward pressure on eurozone economic growth through suppressed cross-border trade channels [2] - However, this impact is not expected to directly translate into upward inflationary pressures, consistent with previous ECB research on the transmission mechanism of imported inflation [2]