标普全球首席经济学家格伦瓦尔德：“不确定性”是今年主题词｜2025夏季达沃斯

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that global economic uncertainty is primarily driven by the United States and its trade policies, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions [1][3] - The ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel has intensified the uncertainty, with significant military actions reported and a subsequent ceasefire [1] - Paul Gruenwald, Chief Economist at S&P Global Ratings, emphasizes that high uncertainty leads to delayed investment decisions by businesses and reduced consumer spending, impacting economic growth [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. trade policy is causing a contraction in the M&A market and a significant drop in IPOs, with only 9 private equity-backed IPOs completed in the first half of 2025 compared to 116 in the same period of 2021 [3] - The U.S. economy is experiencing abnormal fluctuations, with a projected growth rate of 1.5% to 2% for the year, indicating a slowdown compared to the previous year [3] - Central banks worldwide are beginning to lower interest rates in response to the current economic situation, while the long-term implications of tariffs remain uncertain [4] Group 3 - Financial markets play a crucial role in tariff negotiations, with market reactions influencing policy decisions, as evidenced by market declines upon tariff announcements and increases during pauses [4][5] - The future of globalization is uncertain, but it is not considered to be ending, as other countries continue to support it despite the U.S. reassessing its position [4][5] - The adjustment of the U.S. role in global leadership presents strategic opportunities for Europe, which may enhance its position through infrastructure and defense spending [5]